ESTIMATION, FORECASTING, AND NOWCASTING OF HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURE BASED ON T 38 HE SHA 2011 CLASSIFICATIONS
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Timeliness is a core principle of expenditure data quality
that allows access to information when it is needed. Annual
budgeting, identifying needs for course correction of existing
policies, or detecting deviation of spending from its intended use
are some examples of the benefits of using the results of timely,
up-to-date health accounts.
This implies that health accounts must be compiled on a yearly
basis, and their results made available in a timely fashion.
However, accuracy is also an essential condition for data quality.
This means decision-makers may need to wait for audited results
or conduct a more exhaustive search for data. When historical
statistics are not required, timeliness is particularly relevant.
Current practice is to use contemporary data, even when they
can be enriched by analysis of past results and historical trends.
This document provides a guide for estimation of health
expenditure ahead of time to ensure timeliness of reporting. If
necessary, nowcasting can also be used to make up for lags
in reporting of data used to generate health accounts. What
accounting options are available for such forecasting? What
procedures are recommended as standard to ensure timeliness
in the results of this process?
Actual figures should always replace short-term projections as
soon as the corresponding data become available; however, the
forecasting exemplified in this document can provide “expected”
values that can contribute to informed decision-making. |
