Risk of Dying Prematurely from NCDs

 

Goal 3 of the 2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development (SDG) is to "Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages". Target 3.4 is: By 2030, reduce by one-third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being. Premature mortality from NCDs, measured as the unconditional probability of dying at exact ages of 30 to 70 years from any of the four major NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases) is the indicator (3.4.1) to monitor progress on the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases.

This visualization allows readers to explore the level, distribution, and trends of the probability of dying prematurely from all-noncommunicable diseases, the four major NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes mellitus, and chronic respiratory diseases) for two age ranges (from 30 to 70 years of age, and from birth to 80 years of age) by sex in countries of the Region of the Americas from 2000 to 2019.

Probability of dying between the exact ages of 30 to 70 years from any of the four major NCDs 

  • In 2019, a 30-years-old individual living in the Region of the Americas had a 14.0% chance of dying from any of the four major NCDs before reaching its 70th birthday.
  • This risk of premature death is higher in men (16.4%) than in women (11.8%).
  • The premature mortality decreased 8% from 15.3% (95% UI: 13.6 to 17.2) in 2010 to 14.0% (95% UI: 11.7 to 16.9) in 2019.  
  • In 2019, this probability of dying varies across countries from a high of 31.3% in Haiti to a low of 9.5% in Costa Rica.

Countries with the highest probability of dying:

  • Haiti: 31.3%
  • Guyana: 29.2%
  • Grenada: 23.3%
  • Suriname: 22.7%
  • Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: 20.7%
  • Bahamas: 19.9%
  • Dominican Republic: 19.1%

Contribution of the four major NCDs to the overall probability of dying in 2019:

  1. Cancer (all malignant neoplasms): 5.9%
  2. Cardiovascular diseases: 5.8%
  3. Diabetes mellitus: 1.7%
  4. Chronic respiratory diseases: 1.3%
Suggested citation

PAHO. Monitoring the premature mortality from the four major noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes mellitus, and chronic respiratory diseases) in the Region of the Americas, 2000-2019. Pan American Health Organization. 2021.

DATA CLASSIFICATION

In the map and horizontal bar chart, the data is presented in five discrete classes created using the quantile classification method. Each class contains 20% of countries, which is easy to interpret. The quintile classes are labeled sequentially from Quintile 1 as the first or lower quintile including the lowest fifth (1% to 20%) of the data to Quintile 5, the fifth or upper quintile representing the class with the highest fifth (81% to 100%) of the data.

INDICATOR DEFINITION

Indicator name: Probability of dying between exact ages 30 and 70 from any of the four major noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes mellitus, or chronic respiratory diseases), expressed in percentage.

Short name: Risk of premature death from target NCDs.

Data type: Percent.

Rationale: The disease burden from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) among adults is rapidly increasing worldwide due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. Measuring the risk of dying from target NCDs is important to assess the extent of the burden from mortality due to NCDs in a population. This indicator has been selected to measure NCD mortality for the "25 by 25" NCD mortality target.

Definition: Probability (expressed in percentage) that a 30-year-old-individual has of dying before reaching its 70th birthday from any major noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes mellitus, or chronic respiratory diseases), assuming that individual would experience current mortality rates at every age and she/he would not die from any other cause of death (e.g., injuries or HIV/AIDS).

Method of estimation: Probability of death between exact age 30 and 70 years was calculated using cause-specific mortality rates in each five-year age group and standard life table methods. The estimates are derived from the WHO Global Health Estimates 2019 (GHE). These estimates represent the best estimates of WHO, computed using standard cause categories, definitions, and methods to ensure cross-country comparability, and may not be the same as official national estimates. Due to changes in input data and methods, estimates from GHE 2019 derogate previously published WHO estimates.

Methodological details:

Detailed information for the unconditional probability of dying can be found in the NCD Global Monitoring Framework: Indicator Definition and Specifications [pdf file, 645Kb]. 

Data sources and methods for estimating deaths and mortality are described in the following documents:

Preferred data sources: Civil registration and vital statistics with complete coverage and medical certification of cause of death.

Other possible data sources: Household surveys, sample or sentinel registration systems.

Interpretation:

This indicator should be interpreted as the chance that a 30-year-old individual living in a specific country (or place) in a specific year (or defined period of time) has of dying from any of the four major NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, or chronic respiratory disease) before reaching the age of 70 years (or his/her 70th birthday).

  1. WHO. WHO methods and data sources for country-level causes of death 2000-2019. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2020. Available online (accessed 1 February 2021).
  2. WHO. WHO methods and data sources for global burden of disease estimates, 2000-2019. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2020. Available online (accessed 1 February 2021).
  3. PAHO. Methodological Notes, NMH Data Portal. Pan American Health Organization. 2021.
  4. WHO. Noncommunicable Disease Global Monitoring Framework: Indicator Definitions and Specifications. World Health Organization, Geneva, 2014. Available online (accessed 1 February 2021).  

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